Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:11:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa10b…abfd other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$435per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$5
politics 36% −$4
world 10% −$1
crypto 10% −$1
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$985) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage86d
Avg bet$435
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 23 $51 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? Jun 23 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 23 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $68 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 17 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $1,007 $0 +0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 17 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $952 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 17 $68 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $985 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $962 −$1 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $1,074 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $16 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Apr 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $162 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $76 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in March? Apr 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $165 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $50 14m
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 100¢ $51 23m
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $16 29m
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $12 49m
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1,021 58m
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $984 1h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 100¢ $33 1h
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $753 1h
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 100¢ $18 1h
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $283 1h
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,038 2h
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $68 43d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 43d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 43d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $12 43d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 43d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 43d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $14 43d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 43d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $26 43d
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 100¢ $968 66d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 66d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 66d
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $904 66d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 66d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 66d
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $32 66d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $708 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records