Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:54:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa10f…b29d other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$109 (+12%) realized +$110 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$167
14 days+$100
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$99
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +45.2% +31.4% 90% 90% +24.0%
≤30d 17 +1.0% -8.6% 65% 65% +4.4%
≤90d 17 +1.0% -8.6% 65% 65% +4.4%
all 17 +1.0% -8.6% 65% 65% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 65% +4.4%
10% -17.3% 41% -5.6%
15% -25.3% 41% -14.7%
20% -32.6% 35% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$21 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized+$110
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)17 / 22
History coverage21d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $83 $86 +$4 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $77 $76 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $57 +$43 +76%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $42 +$8 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $33 +$17 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 25 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 +$29 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $121 +$24 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 +$17 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $79 +$41 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 +$5 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $17 +$8 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $52 +$28 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 +$5 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $27 −$26 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $121 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $79 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $17 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $17 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $13 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $27 9d
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following BUY Yes 62¢ $19 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.23 · official $234.23 (match) · 34 history records