Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Yes	27¢	64¢	$2	$4	+$2 (+137%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?	No	98¢	97¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	Yes	35¢	48¢	$2	$2	+$1 (+37%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	No	98¢	99¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	98¢	100¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	95¢	100¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+5%)
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	36¢	0¢	$4	$0	−$4 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	May 11	$1	$0	+5%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Apr 22	$4	−$4	-100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	Apr 17	$5	$0	+0%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	Apr 14	$5	$0	+1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee	Apr 08	$1	$0	+2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee	Mar 18	$5	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

tech 38% +$2

economics 20% $0

politics 18% $0

sports 13% −$4

world 10% +$1

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	98¢	$2	2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	BUY Yes	35¢	$2	9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY No	98¢	$1	16d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	BUY Yes	27¢	$2	23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	BUY No	95¢	$1	32d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	36¢	$4	51d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	SELL Yes	100¢	$5	55d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	BUY Yes	99¢	$5	58d
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	SELL Yes	95¢	$5	59d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee	BUY Yes	98¢	$1	65d
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	BUY Yes	94¢	$5	73d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee	BUY Yes	100¢	$5	86d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-23.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	6	-15.2%	-23.3%	83%	0%	-24.5%
all	6	-15.2%	-23.3%	83%	0%	-24.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-23.3%	0%	-24.5%
10%	-30.6%	0%	-31.7%
15%	-37.3%	0%	-38.3%
20%	-43.5%	0%	-44.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.