Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa112…74b9 politics 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%3W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$4
sports 22% −$3
other 10% −$2
culture 7% $0
crypto 4% −$2
world 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 7 -0.7% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 7 -0.7% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 52 -12.7% -21.0% 6% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -28.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -35.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -41.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses3 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)52 / 56
History coverage223d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? No 92¢ 93¢ $80 $81 +$0 (+1%)
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $177 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $274 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $57 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 10? May 21 $91 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $91 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 03 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 29 $90 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $2 $0 -9%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $189 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 22 $91 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $1 $0 -18%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 20 $1 $0 -50%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $1 $0 -50%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $91 $0 -0%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 18 $1 $0 -33%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 18 $187 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 14 $1 $0 -50%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 11? Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 10 $2 $0 -14%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $93 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 05 $96 $0 +0%
Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 26 $1 $0 -20%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 26 $92 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 25? Dec 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 25 $91 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 23 $94 $0 -0%
Will António Filipe win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 22 $95 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 18 $1 $0 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 17 $95 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 15 $101 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $97 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 03 $95 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 28 $96 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 22 $5 $0 -8%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $94 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 15 $96 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $80 1h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $83 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $84 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 8d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $19 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $37 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 10? BUY No 100¢ $91 101d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 101d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 103d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $91 103d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $91 121d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $91 135d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $91 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.69 · official $84.69 (match) · 221 history records