Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A1 0xa113…0038 sports 47 markets active 14h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+2%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%27W / 19L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$14
other 21% −$10
world 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +8.0% -2.3% 59% 59% -7.8%
≤30d 46 +8.0% -2.3% 59% 59% -7.8%
≤90d 46 +8.0% -2.3% 59% 59% -7.8%
all 46 +8.0% -2.3% 59% 59% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 59% -7.8%
10% -11.7% 59% -16.6%
15% -20.2% 52% -24.7%
20% -28.0% 41% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses27 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 $0 -12%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 −$8 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$3 +124%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$3 +83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +46%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$2 +152%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 +$4 +172%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $18 +$15 +82%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +86%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +71%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +34%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $12 +$12 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $9 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $2 27h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $1 45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 45h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 45h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $1 45h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $2 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.56 · official $0.61 (match) · 81 history records