Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa117…5150 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-14%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -40.5% -46.1% 45% 18% -45.8%
≤30d 14 -22.3% -29.7% 50% 29% -28.8%
≤90d 14 -22.3% -29.7% 50% 29% -28.8%
all 14 -22.3% -29.7% 50% 29% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 29% -28.8%
10% -36.4% 21% -35.6%
15% -42.6% 7% -41.8%
20% -48.2% 7% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.18 · official $1.18 (match) · 21 history records