Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa117…bd0e crypto 24 markets active 1d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-11%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -20.4% -28.0% 38% 38% -25.7%
≤30d 24 -20.4% -28.0% 38% 38% -25.7%
≤90d 24 -20.4% -28.0% 38% 38% -25.7%
all 24 -20.4% -28.0% 38% 38% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 38% -25.7%
10% -34.9% 33% -32.8%
15% -41.2% 33% -39.3%
20% -47.0% 29% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$3 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$2 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$11 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$8 -70%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$1 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +64%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +129%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$8 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $11 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $7 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $7 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records