Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:18:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa119…0646 crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-2%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate55%24W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$96
sports 18% +$39
other 9% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +9.8% -0.7% 55% 23% -12.7%
≤30d 44 +9.8% -0.7% 55% 23% -12.7%
≤90d 44 +9.8% -0.7% 55% 23% -12.7%
all 44 +9.8% -0.7% 55% 23% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 23% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.2% 7% -21.0%
15% -18.8% 5% -28.6%
20% -26.8% 5% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses24 / 20
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage5d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $85 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +11%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $16 +$40 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$21 +26%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$23 +1521%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $56 +$11 +20%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $58 +$8 +14%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 −$3 -12%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $16 −$6 -37%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$5 -61%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $57 +$2 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $12 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $11 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 73¢ $11 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 72¢ $11 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.78 · official $12.46 (match) · 146 history records