Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa11a…21c0 crypto 82 markets active 2d ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$356 (-16%) realized −$356 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%37W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$289
14 days−$383
30 days−$379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$398
crypto 20% +$10
weather 4% −$5
other 3% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -28.4% -35.2% 36% 36% -35.2%
≤30d 49 -19.7% -27.3% 49% 35% -26.2%
≤90d 82 -12.5% -20.8% 45% 34% -25.2%
all 82 -12.5% -20.8% 45% 34% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 34% -25.2%
10% -28.4% 24% -32.3%
15% -35.3% 22% -38.9%
20% -41.7% 18% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$356
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses37 / 45
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage29d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +50%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $224 −$8 -3%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $27 +$50 +188%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $186 +$65 +35%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $141 −$140 -99%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $119 +$22 +18%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $132 −$130 -99%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $92 −$91 -99%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $36 −$35 -98%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $101 +$19 +19%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $89 −$87 -98%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $82 +$34 +41%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 09 $104 −$102 -98%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $101 +$84 +83%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $101 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 22 $15 +$3 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 22 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 22 $11 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 22 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 22 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 22 $5 +$4 +73%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 22 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 21 $25 +$5 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 21 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 21 $25 +$2 +8%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 21 $25 +$6 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 87°F or below on May 21? May 20 $97 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 20 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 20 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 20 $23 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 20 $8 +$8 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 20 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 20 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 20 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 20 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 46h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas SELL Besiktas 100¢ $76 4d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar BUY Tommy Paul 51¢ $224 4d
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Besiktas 34¢ $27 4d
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti SELL Roberto Carballes Baena 89¢ $251 4d
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 65¢ $186 5d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Adrian Mannarino $10 5d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Anastasia Zakharova 67¢ $141 5d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Barbora Krejcikova 84¢ $119 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 26¢ $46 6d
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan BUY Viktorija Golubic 44¢ $18 6d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Harriet Dart 56¢ $132 6d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 64¢ $92 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 30¢ $36 7d
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate SELL Carlos Maria Zarate 99¢ $119 7d
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 83¢ $101 7d
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 42¢ $89 8d
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally SELL Caty McNally 100¢ $116 8d
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 70¢ $82 8d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group BUY Atreides 47¢ $104 9d
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Jaqueline Cristian 54¢ $101 9d
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage SELL Verdant 49¢ $95 10d
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage BUY Verdant 51¢ $101 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $15 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $15 26d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $15 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $11 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $11 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 200 history records