Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
A1 0xa11e…a6e7 politics 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$319 (-60%) realized −$319 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$330
world 10% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -7.5% -16.3% 0% 0% -16.3%
≤30d 3 -31.5% -38.0% 0% 0% -66.4%
≤90d 3 -31.5% -38.0% 0% 0% -66.4%
all 3 -31.5% -38.0% 0% 0% -66.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 0% -66.4%
10% -44.0% 0% -69.6%
15% -49.4% 0% -72.5%
20% -54.3% 0% -75.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$111 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$319
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage25d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $54 −$4 -8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $381 −$329 -86%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 01 $96 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records