Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa120…c6cd crypto 47 markets active 18h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$311 (-27%) realized −$358 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate69%31W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$111
14 days−$385
30 days−$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 79% −$309
crypto 19% −$40
other 1% +$6
sports 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +22.0% +10.4% 83% 67% -59.2%
≤30d 45 -0.1% -9.6% 69% 53% -42.5%
≤90d 45 -0.1% -9.6% 69% 53% -42.5%
all 45 -0.1% -9.6% 69% 53% -42.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 53% -42.5%
10% -18.3% 38% -48.0%
15% -26.2% 27% -53.0%
20% -33.4% 11% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$31 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$358
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses31 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage15d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $33 $81 +$48 (+146%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 +$5 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $4 +$4 +101%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $5 +$6 +102%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $7 +$3 +40%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $156 −$130 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +20%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $417 −$182 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$7 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 08 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 08 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 08 $31 −$18 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $10 −$8 -81%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $238 −$44 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 08 $9 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 3¢ $10 18h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 3¢ $2 18h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 4¢ $3 18h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $16 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $11 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $11 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 2¢ $8 20h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 5¢ $2 23h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 5¢ $6 23h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 5¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 24h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $8 24h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $4 26h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 2¢ $3 26h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.70 · official $86.50 · 264 history records