Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A1 0xa121…c5f4 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$245 (+13%) realized +$260 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$895now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$153
14 days+$135
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$182
sports 8% −$53
crypto 6% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +5.0% -5.0% 67% 67% +10.8%
≤30d 13 +27.6% +15.4% 69% 69% +10.6%
≤90d 13 +27.6% +15.4% 69% 69% +10.6%
all 14 +29.1% +16.8% 71% 71% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.8% 71% +13.0%
10% +5.6% 71% +2.2%
15% -4.6% 71% -7.7%
20% -14.0% 43% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$52 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$895
Realized+$260
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)14 / 25
History coverage98d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 52¢ $120 $117 −$3 (-3%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$33 +65%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $118 +$98 +83%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $121 +$46 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$23 +57%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 −$62 -76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$60 +291%
Will Bilibili Gaming win First Stand 2026? Mar 22 $100 +$48 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $122 1h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $71 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 20¢ $82 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 13¢ $19 10d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $81 11d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $118 18d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 18d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $121 18d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 18d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 18d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $46 18d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 18d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 18d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 18d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 18d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 74¢ $50 18d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 18d
Will Bilibili Gaming win First Stand 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $895.11 · official $895.11 (match) · 39 history records