Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa121…28c6 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+10%) realized +$3 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$5
sports 42% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +37.6% +24.5% 50% 50% +25.9%
≤30d 8 +37.6% +24.5% 50% 50% +25.9%
≤90d 8 +37.6% +24.5% 50% 50% +25.9%
all 8 +37.6% +24.5% 50% 50% +25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.5% 50% +25.9%
10% +12.6% 50% +13.8%
15% +1.7% 50% +2.8%
20% -8.2% 50% -7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)8 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+270%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Saigon Warriors 35¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Team Evictix 48¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Gen.G Global Academy 52¢ 49¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season T1 Academy 78¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Team Liquid 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 36¢ $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 35¢ $1 7h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $1 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 26h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 33h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 33h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY Gen.G Global Academy 52¢ $1 33h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.12 · official $13.12 (match) · 23 history records