Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:34:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa124…87d9 crypto 862 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$813 (-3%) realized −$798 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%406W / 657L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day92.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$552
sports 0% +$252
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 356 -49.7% -54.5% 20% 19% -46.9%
≤30d 441 -40.2% -45.9% 25% 24% -40.0%
≤90d 1063 -22.5% -29.9% 38% 36% -27.5%
all 1063 -22.5% -29.9% 38% 36% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.9% 36% -27.5%
10% ← realistic here -36.6% 33% -34.4%
15% -42.7% 28% -40.7%
20% -48.3% 22% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$22 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$798
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses406 / 657
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1063 / 862
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day92.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1063 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 39¢ 22¢ $35 $20 −$15 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$34 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$13 -128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$6 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $17 −$19 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $37 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $40 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $20 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $38 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $38 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $38 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $35 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $38 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $38 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $40 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $30 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $38 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $38 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $37 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $38 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $38 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $29 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $39 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $39 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $39 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.45 · official $36.82 · 3500 history records