Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa127…4e1f weather 469 markets active 12h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$33 (-3%) realized −$27 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%101W / 356L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$7
14 days+$48
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% +$63
crypto 6% −$33
finance 2% −$16
sports 2% −$18
other 1% −$11
politics 1% −$3
world 1% +$4
economics 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -25.6% -32.7% 30% 24% -11.8%
≤30d 71 -17.2% -25.1% 27% 24% -6.6%
≤90d 445 -3.1% -12.3% 21% 20% -16.7%
all 457 -1.4% -10.8% 22% 21% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 21% -16.4%
10% -19.3% 19% -24.4%
15% -27.1% 18% -31.7%
20% -34.3% 16% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses101 / 356
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)457 / 469
History coverage118d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 16¢ 100¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+524%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-95%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-48%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $8 +$30 +387%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 18 $8 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $42 −$14 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$7 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $15 −$7 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $9 +$21 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $23 −$17 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $34 −$9 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $24 +$21 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 14 $34 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 9? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 12 $4 +$15 +351%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 8? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 12 $6 +$7 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $6 +$34 +552%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $4 +$22 +611%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $9 +$6 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 35h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 79¢ $6 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 75¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 72¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $8 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.39 · official $15.39 (match) · 1889 history records