Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa128…6bf6 other 231 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 221L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$39
sports 21% −$18
culture 9% −$8
politics 8% −$10
crypto 6% −$6
economics 5% −$3
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 230 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)230 / 231
History coverage127d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $171 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $209 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $429 −$1 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $242 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $213 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $164 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $284 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $150 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $136 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $92 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $469 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $367 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $297 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $283 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $378 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 11 $208 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $292 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $552 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $292 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $177 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $368 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $420 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $228 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $470 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $344 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $289 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $225 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $305 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 2h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 3h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $42 5h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $42 7h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 9h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 10h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 14h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 15h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $42 24h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $42 26h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $43 28h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $43 30h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 33h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 34h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $43 36h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $43 38h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 39h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 40h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 46h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $43 2d
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $43 2d
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $43 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $43 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $44 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $44 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $44 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.95 · official $41.95 (match) · 1328 history records