Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa129…0838 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$129 (-29%) realized −$132 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$111
world 18% +$10
other 14% −$12
politics 11% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-73.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -68.0% -71.1% 11% 0% -67.2%
≤30d 9 -68.0% -71.1% 11% 0% -67.2%
≤90d 10 -70.6% -73.4% 10% 0% -72.8%
all 10 -70.6% -73.4% 10% 0% -72.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -73.4% 0% -72.8%
10% -76.0% 0% -75.4%
15% -78.3% 0% -77.8%
20% -80.4% 0% -79.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$18 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)10 / 20
History coverage85d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 75¢ 100¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+33%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes $20 $25 +$5 (+27%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 48¢ 58¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) New Zealand 75¢ 86¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ 96¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+119%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 24¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 56¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Under 45¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 −$7 -18%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$18 -89%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 24 $47 −$44 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $21 37m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 45m
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 75¢ $20 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 56¢ $9 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $20 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 45¢ $20 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $2 2h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $20 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 75¢ $20 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $10 4h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ $10 4h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 61¢ $10 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $20 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $20 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $20 6h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 56¢ $10 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 99¢ $20 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 95¢ $20 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $20 8h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 66¢ $10 8h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $20 9h
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 SELL Yes $3 83d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 BUY Yes 16¢ $6 85d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 BUY Yes 16¢ $32 85d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 BUY Yes 18¢ $8 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.95 · official $173.05 (match) · 32 history records