Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:37:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A1 0xa12b…e53c crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$263 (+171%) realized +$263 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +600% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +508% what you keep after slip
Net edge+508%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% $0
crypto 17% +$263
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+533.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +600.0% +533.3% 33% 33% +290.1%
≤30d 3 +600.0% +533.3% 33% 33% +290.1%
≤90d 3 +600.0% +533.3% 33% 33% +290.1%
all 3 +600.0% +533.3% 33% 33% +290.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +533.3% 33% +290.1%
10% +472.7% 33% +252.8%
15% +417.4% 33% +218.7%
20% +366.7% 33% +187.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1010% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +600% · $-wt +1010% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$284 vs −$10 · ×27.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.71 per $1 lost it wins $13.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$263
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$284 +5305%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $289 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Japan to score first vs. Sweden? BUY 29¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Japan to score first vs. Sweden? BUY 29¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $124.39 · 9 history records