Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:40:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa12f…17a0 other 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$180 (-20%) realized −$168 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%23W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$63
politics 29% −$24
crypto 22% −$55
world 7% −$42
sports 5% +$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -7.1% -15.9% 30% 20% -12.3%
≤30d 10 -7.1% -15.9% 30% 20% -12.3%
≤90d 96 -36.1% -42.2% 24% 21% -29.9%
all 96 -36.1% -42.2% 24% 21% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.2% 21% -29.9%
10% -47.7% 19% -36.6%
15% -52.7% 19% -42.8%
20% -57.4% 16% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$168
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses23 / 73
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)96 / 117
History coverage83d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-29%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-44%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 17¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+57%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 46¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+98%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 57¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 52¢ 68¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+30%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+26%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 34¢ 10¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 37¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 −$6 -46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +255%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -28%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -36%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $20 −$5 -24%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -19%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 12 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 12 $5 +$2 +43%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 12 $5 +$3 +59%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Poland end in a draw? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $5 +$5 +95%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Senegal vs. Peru end in a draw? Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Peru win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-03-27? Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $5 −$4 -77%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $30 −$11 -36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $10 +$13 +128%
Will Japan win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Scotland vs. Japan end in a draw? Mar 28 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Hungary vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Mar 28 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Hungary win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $5 +$4 +77%
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Morocco vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Mar 28 $2 +$5 +270%
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $2 −$1 -33%
Will England vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Mar 27 $4 −$1 -21%
Will England win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $15 −$1 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Switzerland vs. Germany end in a draw? Mar 27 $5 +$6 +120%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $8 +$6 +77%
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31? Mar 27 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during National Agriculture Day events Mar 27 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Mar 27 $15 −$7 -48%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Mar 27 $15 −$7 -47%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Mar 27 $15 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 27 $8 +$20 +249%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 57m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 57m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $18 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 20h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 45h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY No 57¢ $5 64d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 56¢ $5 64d
Will England win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 76d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 76d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.83 · official $90.84 (match) · 367 history records