Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa12f…e012 crypto 677 markets active 4h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,292 (-7%) realized −$2,292 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate70%475W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day32.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$264
7 days−$181
14 days+$71
30 days−$584
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,766
sports 0% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -5.7% -14.6% 78% 21% -13.2%
≤30d 449 -10.3% -18.8% 75% 19% -12.4%
≤90d 677 -11.7% -20.1% 70% 23% -16.7%
all 677 -11.7% -20.1% 70% 23% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 23% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 18% -24.7%
15% -34.7% 13% -32.0%
20% -41.1% 9% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$42 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,292
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses475 / 202
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)677 / 677
History coverage71d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 677 Trades
no open positions (152 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $189 +$20 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $157 +$18 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $107 −$105 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$15 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $56 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $73 −$19 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$11 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $65 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 14¢ $22 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 15¢ $26 20h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 10¢ $17 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 23h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 1¢ $2 25h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 2¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 30h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 10¢ $18 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 86¢ $163 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2858 history records