Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:31:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa132…6655 sports 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,562 (+20%) realized +$1,564 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%74W / 54L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$45
14 days+$46
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,384
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +18.4% +7.1% 80% 60% +13.2%
≤30d 26 -13.9% -22.1% 54% 50% -18.9%
≤90d 72 -6.0% -14.9% 53% 51% +10.3%
all 128 +1.4% -8.2% 58% 57% +7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 57% +7.4%
10% -17.0% 55% -2.9%
15% -25.0% 47% -12.3%
20% -32.4% 39% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$37 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$1,564
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses74 / 54
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage124d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Choinski (+1.5) Fritz 64¢ 61¢ $54 $52 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$11 +44%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper Jun 22 $55 +$4 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $50 +$40 +79%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Etcheverry (+1.5) Jun 16 $30 +$21 +70%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $55 −$54 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $52 +$34 +65%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 06 $53 −$52 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $55 −$54 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $55 +$37 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $55 −$54 -99%
Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $65 +$30 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi May 31 $55 −$54 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $48 +$20 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 28 $15 −$15 -99%
Arthur Rinderknech vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 27 $55 −$54 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $111 +$107 +97%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 27 $55 −$54 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $55 +$48 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana May 26 $55 +$40 +73%
Set Handicap: Vacherot (-1.5) vs Faurel (+1.5) May 26 $55 +$19 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 25 $55 −$54 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $65 −$64 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Yibing Wu vs Marcos Giron May 25 $65 −$64 -99%
Alex de Minaur vs. Toby Samuel: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 25 $55 +$37 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik May 24 $22 +$11 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 24 $65 +$61 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan May 24 $65 +$44 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Gabriel Diallo May 23 $55 −$54 -99%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Jaume Munar May 21 $55 +$48 +86%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann May 20 $55 +$30 +55%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert May 20 $56 −$54 -98%
Dias vs. Galarneau: Match O/U 22.5 May 20 $1 +$1 +114%
Glinka vs. Prado: Match O/U 21.5 May 20 $1 +$1 +105%
Begu vs. Lamens: Match O/U 21.5 May 20 $1 +$1 +114%
Irina-Camelia Begu vs. Suzan Lamens: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 20 $1 +$2 +165%
Norrie vs. Navone: Match O/U 21.5 May 20 $1 +$1 +129%
Kraus vs. Akugue: Match O/U 21.5 May 20 $1 +$1 +129%
Andrea Pellegrino vs. Lloyd Harris: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 20 $1 +$2 +158%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Tsitsipas vs. Tien: Match O/U 21.5 May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Set Handicap: Pridankina (-1.5) vs Avdeeva (+1.5) May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Ugo Blanchet vs. Pablo Llamas Ruiz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Fokina vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5 May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Stefanos Sakellaridis vs. Marco Cecchinato: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Friedsam vs. Zidansek: Match O/U 21.5 May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Minnen vs. Radivojevic: Match O/U 21.5 May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Anna-Lena Friedsam vs. Tamara Zidansek: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Parks vs. Teichmann: Match O/U 21.5 May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Choinski (+1.5) BUY Fritz 64¢ $33 1h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Choinski (+1.5) BUY Fritz 63¢ $22 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 31h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper BUY Jack Draper 46¢ $55 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 4d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 55¢ $50 5d
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Etcheverry (+1.5) BUY Medvedev 58¢ $30 7d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 62¢ $55 8d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 60¢ $52 14d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) BUY Zverev 64¢ $53 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Berrettini 63¢ $55 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 66¢ $55 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Matteo Berrettini 59¢ $55 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 51¢ $55 22d
Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 68¢ $65 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Arthur Rinderknech 52¢ $15 26d
Arthur Rinderknech vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 66¢ $55 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 70¢ $48 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 61¢ $55 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik BUY Jakub Mensik 53¢ $55 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic BUY Joao Fonseca 50¢ $111 28d
Set Handicap: Vacherot (-1.5) vs Faurel (+1.5) BUY Vacherot 74¢ $55 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga BUY Sebastian Baez 56¢ $55 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana BUY Francisco Comesana 57¢ $55 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils BUY Gael Monfils 54¢ $65 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Yibing Wu vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 55¢ $65 29d
Alex de Minaur vs. Toby Samuel: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 59¢ $55 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik BUY Jakub Mensik 67¢ $22 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 51¢ $65 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.23 · official $52.23 (match) · 235 history records