Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:03:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A1 0xa133…1861 world 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+6%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% $0
economics 25% $0
crypto 11% $0
politics 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +8.4% -2.0% 100% 33% -5.2%
all 3 +8.4% -2.0% 100% 33% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 33% -5.2%
10% -11.3% 33% -14.3%
15% -19.9% 0% -22.6%
20% -27.8% 0% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage88d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 73¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 17 $4 $0 +2%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $2 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $2 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 38d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $2 58d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 73¢ $1 67d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $2 74d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 81¢ $2 80d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $1 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.91 · official $11.91 (match) · 9 history records