Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A1 0xa135…6085 other 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 378d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$548 (+33%) realized +$544 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%31W / 57L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$80
14 days+$130
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$261
weather 2% +$15
crypto 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +31.5% +19.0% 60% 60% +26.7%
≤30d 24 +22.5% +10.8% 46% 46% +4.4%
≤90d 55 +25.7% +13.8% 38% 38% +11.8%
all 88 +13.8% +2.9% 35% 33% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 33% +9.6%
10% -6.9% 31% -0.9%
15% -15.9% 27% -10.5%
20% -24.2% 26% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$10 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

378d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$544
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses31 / 57
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage378d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $105 −$53 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $52 +$54 +103%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $106 −$28 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $52 +$67 +130%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $52 +$39 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $52 +$70 +134%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $21 +$33 +160%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $31 +$11 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $21 +$51 +242%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $21 +$24 +116%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 30? May 30 $10 +$19 +186%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 30? May 30 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 30? May 30 $0 $0 -10%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $10 +$31 +298%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $31 +$55 +176%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets in May 2026? May 16 $10 −$8 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 16 $10 −$2 -24%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 16 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets in May 2026? May 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in May 2026? May 15 $10 +$50 +479%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in May 2026? May 11 $21 −$11 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in May 2026? May 11 $0 +$2 +376%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 06 $10 +$11 +111%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $10 +$23 +216%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $50 +$54 +107%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 30 $40 +$26 +65%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times August 22–August 29? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5? Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 20 Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5? Apr 28 $24 −$11 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $7 +$7 +105%
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $52 30m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $52 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $267 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $52 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $52 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $52 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $52 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $106 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $119 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $91 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 7d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $50 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $52 8d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $52 8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $34 8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $38 8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 9d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $47 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $74 11d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $54 11d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 11d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 13d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $42 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.51 · official $103.51 (match) · 254 history records