Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa138…7a9b weather 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$88 (-25%) realized −$84 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate72%86W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$9
14 days−$88
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -5.9% -14.9% 80% 31% -6.0%
≤30d 120 -14.2% -22.4% 72% 30% -32.6%
≤90d 120 -14.2% -22.4% 72% 30% -32.6%
all 120 -14.2% -22.4% 72% 30% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 30% -32.6%
10% -29.8% 10% -39.1%
15% -36.6% 10% -45.0%
20% -42.8% 7% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses86 / 34
Open positions9
Markets (closed)120 / 129
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 44¢ 98¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+124%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Yes 85¢ 61¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$51 +306%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$12 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 43m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 44m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 99¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 99¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 97¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.56 · official $11.56 (match) · 260 history records