Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:57:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa13a…4baf
sports · 21 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$125 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$53 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage48d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 1 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 10¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $173 −$17 -10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $298 −$148 -50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $375 +$76 +20%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $184 +$30 +16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $133 +$7 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $113 +$19 +17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $99 +$14 +14%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - Conquest of Prague O Apr 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Apr 27 $23 +$7 +30%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In Gro Apr 27 $22 +$2 +7%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challe Apr 27 $20 +$2 +8%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs 9z (BO5) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Playoffs Apr 27 $16 +$4 +27%
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 26 $13 +$3 +23%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 26 $12 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Apr 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 26 $15 −$4 -28%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $42 −$29 -68%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $20 +$5 +26%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 25 $20 +$7 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 73% −$86
other 27% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 57¢ $71 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 57¢ $73 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 51¢ $73 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 52¢ $77 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 51¢ $77 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 52¢ $80 1h
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A SELL STATE 88¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A SELL STATE 88¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A SELL STATE 88¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A SELL STATE 88¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A SELL STATE 88¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A SELL STATE 88¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A SELL STATE 88¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A SELL STATE 88¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY STATE 84¢ $77 1h
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A SELL STATE 58¢ $70 2h
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A SELL STATE 75¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY STATE 74¢ $92 2h
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY STATE 65¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 55¢ $98 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 58¢ $106 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 13¢ $52 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 47¢ $192 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 70¢ $243 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $208 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 75¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 75¢ $197 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 71% 57% -10.7%
≤30d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 71% 57% -10.7%
≤90d 20 -5.3% -14.3% 70% 50% -12.5%
all 20 -5.3% -14.3% 70% 50% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 50% -12.5%
10% -22.5% 25% -20.8%
15% -30.0% 0% -28.5%
20% -36.8% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 77 history records