Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa13b…1d3a crypto 222 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$165 (-12%) realized −$163 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%74W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$157
sports 2% −$2
other 1% −$14
tech 0% −$5
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +20.9% +9.4% 33% 33% +7.0%
≤30d 23 +10.4% -0.1% 30% 30% -1.6%
≤90d 206 -12.0% -20.4% 35% 33% -21.0%
all 215 -15.2% -23.3% 34% 33% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 33% -23.0%
10% -30.6% 30% -30.4%
15% -37.3% 27% -37.1%
20% -43.5% 22% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$163
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses74 / 141
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)215 / 222
History coverage240d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 +$7 +712%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +249%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +650%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 02 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 02 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 02 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 02 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 02 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 02 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 01 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 01 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 01 $3 +$4 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 01 $3 +$10 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 01 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 29h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 29h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 29h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $1 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1 7d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.27 · official $5.27 (match) · 341 history records