Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A1 0xa140…6ef5 sports 333 markets active 0h ago coverage 772d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%114W / 190L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$10
14 days−$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$58
other 22% −$26
politics 19% −$23
culture 7% −$4
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% −$6
tech 2% +$2
world 1% −$15
finance 0% −$22
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -2.7% -11.9% 51% 40% -12.5%
≤30d 98 +1.1% -8.5% 48% 41% -8.7%
≤90d 101 +2.1% -7.6% 49% 42% -9.0%
all 304 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 32% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 32% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 30% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 24% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 19% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

772d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses114 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions29
Markets (closed)304 / 333
History coverage772d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 9¢ 22¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+134%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Yes 25¢ 37¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+48%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 88¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 80¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 52¢ 58¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 60¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+66%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 74¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 52¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 79¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 69¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $8 +$3 +39%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -25%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$5 -67%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 -6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 17 $4 $0 -1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +9%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 +$9 +165%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $6 +$4 +61%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $4 +$6 +150%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $4 +$3 +84%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $12 +$3 +28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $6 +$3 +61%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $4 +$6 +172%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $9 −$3 -34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$7 +108%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +140%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -16%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 2m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 60¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 37¢ $4 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $4 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $6 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 80¢ $8 5h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $4 8h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $1 8h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 13h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 13h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 13h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 14h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 15h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 15h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 15h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY No 77¢ $4 19h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 21h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 21h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 81¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.31 · official $126.66 (match) · 900 history records