Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A1 0xa141…8eba crypto 64 markets active 6d ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$207 (+12%) realized +$207 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate77%47W / 14L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$198
crypto 9% +$3
other 8% $0
weather 3% +$1
tech 2% +$5
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.4% -1.0% 100% 25% -7.7%
≤30d 4 +9.4% -1.0% 100% 25% -7.7%
≤90d 11 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 9% -8.2%
all 61 +4.2% -5.7% 77% 8% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 8% +1.5%
10% -14.8% 3% -8.2%
15% -23.0% 2% -17.1%
20% -30.5% 2% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×41.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×176.5 per $1 lost it wins $176.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses47 / 14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage545d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 +33%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? Jun 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 16? Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 3? May 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April? May 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of March? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 09 $2 $0 +18%
Kings vs. Celtics Feb 09 $1 $0 +22%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will Natalia Díaz Quintana win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential elect Feb 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 28? Feb 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 8? Jan 28 $1 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 26? Jan 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Jan 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 11? Dec 26 $2 $0 +2%
76ers vs. Nets Dec 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 29? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Dec 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 28? Nov 29 $1 $0 +3%
Rangers vs. Bruins Nov 29 $242 +$198 +82%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 28 $250 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Pacers Nov 28 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 25? Nov 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November Nov 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on October 28? Nov 06 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Nov 06 $4 $0 +3%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 06 $5 $0 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? Nov 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on October 21? Oct 28 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,000 and $4,100 on October 17? Oct 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $185 in September? Oct 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Sep 21 $6 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 13 $9 $0 +4%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 17 $8 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 19 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 21 $15 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 21 $5 $0 +3%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Mar 01 $101 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 01 $20 +$4 +19%
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? Jan 12 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the Eastern Conference? Jan 03 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $20 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $26 33d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 3? BUY No 97¢ $5 46d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 74¢ $1 46d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 46d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $11 46d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $4 64d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April? BUY No 99¢ $6 64d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 64d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $12 99d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 99d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 85¢ $2 128d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $2 128d
Kings vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 82¢ $1 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 8? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 160d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua BUY Yes 97¢ $1 160d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $8 160d
Will Natalia Díaz Quintana win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $2 173d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 99¢ $2 173d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 173d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 11? BUY No 98¢ $2 188d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 188d
76ers vs. Nets BUY 76ers 95¢ $1 200d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 29? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 200d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 28? BUY No 97¢ $1 201d
Rangers vs. Bruins BUY Rangers 55¢ $242 201d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $250 201d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.84 · official $53.84 (match) · 167 history records