Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa141…23cf crypto 182 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+5%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%72W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$27
14 days+$48
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$10
weather 1% −$3
sports 1% +$3
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -12.5% -20.9% 52% 45% -28.9%
≤30d 180 -3.5% -12.7% 40% 37% -8.1%
≤90d 180 -3.5% -12.7% 40% 37% -8.1%
all 180 -3.5% -12.7% 40% 37% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 37% -8.1%
10% -21.1% 29% -16.9%
15% -28.7% 26% -25.0%
20% -35.7% 23% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses72 / 108
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)180 / 182
History coverage29d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 34¢ 36¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 3h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 16h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.19 · official $5.19 (match) · 334 history records