Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:31:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A1 0xa142…d7ec other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+2%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days+$29
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$28
world 31% +$3
sports 14% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.8% -11.1% 20% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 44% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 44% 0% -7.7%
all 9 +0.7% -8.9% 44% 0% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 0% -7.7%
10% -17.6% 0% -16.5%
15% -25.6% 0% -24.6%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$3 · ×5.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.4 per $1 lost it wins $7.4
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage15d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 24 $309 +$3 +1%
Turkish Constitutional Referendum announced in 2026? Jun 24 $315 −$8 -3%
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? Jun 23 $313 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 23 $316 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $6 $0 -7%
Game 2: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 10 $460 +$35 +8%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 10 $461 +$2 +0%
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) Jun 09 $429 +$31 +7%
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Jun 09 $431 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $311 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $309 2h
Turkish Constitutional Referendum announced in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $11 2h
Turkish Constitutional Referendum announced in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $296 2h
Turkish Constitutional Referendum announced in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $315 6h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $313 25h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $313 26h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $316 27h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $316 29h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Game 2: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY No 93¢ $460 14d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $463 14d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $461 14d
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) BUY China PR 93¢ $429 15d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $430 15d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $431 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records