Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A1 0xa142…3ea5 crypto 11 markets active 2d ago coverage 89d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$5
crypto 40% $0
other 19% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.5% -0.0% 50% 25% -12.2%
≤30d 4 +10.5% -0.0% 50% 25% -12.2%
≤90d 4 +10.5% -0.0% 50% 25% -12.2%
all 11 -6.9% -15.8% 45% 36% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 36% -10.7%
10% -23.8% 36% -19.3%
15% -31.2% 18% -27.1%
20% -37.9% 18% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage89d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +237%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 18 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 18 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 18 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 18 $1 +$1 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 22¢ $5 42h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $3 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 20¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 90d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 90d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records