Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa143…1303 weather 181 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate93%145W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -3.4% -12.6% 93% 12% -9.7%
≤30d 156 -3.3% -12.5% 93% 12% -9.7%
≤90d 156 -3.3% -12.5% 93% 12% -9.7%
all 156 -3.3% -12.5% 93% 12% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 12% -9.7%
10% -20.9% 5% -18.3%
15% -28.5% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.5% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$405
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses145 / 11
Open positions25
Markets (closed)156 / 181
History coverage23d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 27? No 85¢ 94¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 27? No 93¢ 100¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 27? No 98¢ 100¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 27? No 95¢ 99¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? No 90¢ 99¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 27? No 82¢ 99¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 27? No 97¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 27? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 27? No 96¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 27? No 53¢ 58¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 27? No 70¢ 48¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 27? No 63¢ 40¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 27? No 81¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 27? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27? No 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? Jun 27 $40 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 27? Jun 27 $40 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 94°F or higher on June 26? Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 26? Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 76°F or higher on June 26? Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 26? Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 26? Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 26? Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 26 Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 26? Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26? Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 26? Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on June 26? Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 26? Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 26? Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 27 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 27 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 26? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 26? Jun 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $11 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $9 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 26 Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 27? BUY No 85¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $19 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $39 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 82¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 81¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $18 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $38 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27 BUY No 92¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 93¢ $40 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $40 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 94°F or higher on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $405.43 · official $403.23 (match) · 339 history records