Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa144…cd41
other · 117 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$7 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 106
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage110d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 1 History 116 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Bulls vs. Lakers Bulls 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Clippers Pacers 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Nets vs. Trail Blazers Nets 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Pacers Pacers 21¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Jazz vs. 76ers Jazz 23¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Thunder Knicks 25¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Pelicans Warriors 54¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Nuggets Warriors 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Nuggets Jazz 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Heat vs. Rockets Heat 43¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $128 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $60 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $134 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $152 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $77 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $140 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $79 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $68 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $78 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $72 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $76 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $64 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $130 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $74 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $118 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $75 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $81 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $75 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $141 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $62 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $59 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $138 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $73 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $64 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 21 $77 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $77 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$4
politics 39% −$4
sports 8% +$13
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $9 6d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $9 7d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 15d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $7 15d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $7 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $56 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $56 18d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 18d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 19d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 20d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 21d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 21d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 22d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 22d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 22d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 23d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 24d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 25d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 25d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 25d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 26d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 26d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 27d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 107 -3.7% -12.9% 7% 6% -9.3%
all 116 -4.0% -13.2% 9% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 8% -9.5%
10% -21.5% 8% -18.1%
15% -29.1% 5% -26.0%
20% -36.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.99 · official $12.99 (match) · 300 history records