Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:04:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A1 0xa144…fc6c crypto 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$621 (+13%) realized +$640 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%51W / 89L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$164
7 days+$81
14 days+$40
30 days+$453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$420
crypto 39% +$14
other 20% +$41
politics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -8.8% -17.5% 39% 39% -4.9%
≤30d 137 +8.2% -2.1% 36% 36% -0.5%
≤90d 140 +7.2% -3.0% 36% 36% -0.1%
all 140 +7.2% -3.0% 36% 36% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 36% -0.1%
10% -12.3% 36% -9.6%
15% -20.7% 35% -18.4%
20% -28.5% 31% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$24 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$640
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses51 / 89
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)140 / 146
History coverage31d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $51 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $25 $24 −$2 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $11 $0 -1%
UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026? Jun 16 $37 −$14 -38%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $62 −$61 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $90 +$159 +176%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $32 −$31 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $93 +$45 +48%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$15 +40%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $81 +$107 +132%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $53 +$35 +66%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $50 −$48 -95%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $25 +$25 +101%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $64 +$46 +73%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$35 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 +$38 +82%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $40 +$17 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 +$30 +74%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $35 +$25 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$59 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$50 +167%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $15 +$16 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 +$168 +560%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $36 +$54 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $56 −$20 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $40 +$20 +50%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $12 −$8 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $34 +$47 +137%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5AM ET Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 08 $79 −$79 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $115 −$115 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 3¢ $10 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $23 1h
UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026? SELL No 13¢ $23 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $29 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 52¢ $26 25h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $62 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $6 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $12 35h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 62¢ $51 38h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 27¢ $20 38h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $19 38h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 46¢ $32 38h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $139 38h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 66¢ $93 39h
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $189 39h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 42¢ $81 40h
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 40h
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $87 40h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 3¢ $2 40h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 62¢ $50 40h
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $53 40h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $50 40h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 49¢ $25 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $32 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $110 41h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 60¢ $36 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $85 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.79 · official $153.79 · 543 history records