Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:01:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa145…057d other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$155 (+12%) realized −$107 · open +$262
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$43
14 days+$68
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$135
sports 34% +$465
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -8.5% -17.2% 33% 33% -5.3%
≤30d 18 -7.1% -15.9% 33% 33% -4.1%
≤90d 18 -7.1% -15.9% 33% 33% -4.1%
all 18 -7.1% -15.9% 33% 33% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 33% -4.1%
10% -24.0% 28% -13.3%
15% -31.3% 22% -21.6%
20% -38.1% 22% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$32 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$262
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage9d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $155 $417 +$262 (+169%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $231 −$76 -33%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$110 +180%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$7 -28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 −$20 -83%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $92 +$131 +143%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$130 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $121 +$41 +34%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $68 +$87 +128%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$34 -33%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $30 −$28 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $158 31m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $155 31m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $231 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $171 20h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $61 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 25h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $24 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $24 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $223 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $92 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $131 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $162 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $121 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $68 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $67 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 7d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.82 · official $416.82 (match) · 31 history records