Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A1 0xa146…038b crypto 223 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+2%) realized +$32 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%90W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$255
7 days+$184
14 days+$193
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$245
crypto 32% −$96
other 21% −$138
politics 3% −$5
world 3% +$13
tech 2% +$10
culture 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +25.9% +13.9% 57% 57% +14.0%
≤30d 100 -7.8% -16.5% 38% 37% -5.6%
≤90d 192 +6.6% -3.5% 47% 45% -8.6%
all 192 +6.6% -3.5% 47% 45% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 45% -8.6%
10% -12.8% 42% -17.4%
15% -21.2% 36% -25.3%
20% -28.9% 29% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses90 / 102
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions31
Markets (closed)192 / 223
History coverage76d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 34¢ 94¢ $25 $68 +$43 (+175%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 44¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-12%)
Databricks IPO before 2027? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 40¢ 59¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+47%)
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 36¢ 30¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes 66¢ 52¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+125%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Yes 33¢ 4¢ $14 $2 −$13 (-89%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 44¢ 63¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 40¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $38 +$37 +97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$57 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $43 +$37 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 +$40 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $39 +$64 +165%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $42 +$96 +226%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $8 +$6 +76%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +156%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $47 +$69 +145%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Jun 13 $9 +$6 +62%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +65%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $16 +$13 +81%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $25 +$12 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $39 +$26 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.0B? Jun 04 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $18 +$4 +24%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 30 $16 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 29 $22 +$8 +37%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 29 $10 +$9 +92%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $22 +$11 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $25 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $25 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $74 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $38 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 26h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 34h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $50 34h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $31 34h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $43 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $40 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $39 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $138 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $42 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $54 5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $59 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $58 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $116 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $47 5d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $13 5d
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? SELL Yes 72¢ $15 5d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 57¢ $20 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $57 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 8d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 57¢ $20 9d
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $25 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.96 · official $197.63 (match) · 624 history records