Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:32:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa147…3fcc politics 184 markets active 3h ago coverage 645d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$99,372 (-22%) realized −$98,950 · open −$422
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate59%107W / 75L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,456per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$3,210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,388
7 days+$5,314
14 days+$5,314
30 days+$5,314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$106,994
other 8% +$108
sports 3% +$2,014
world 2% +$5,186
crypto 1% +$542
economics 0% −$397
tech 0% +$1,341
finance 0% −$968
culture 0% −$767
weather 0% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +46.0% +32.1% 50% 50% +62.8%
≤30d 2 +46.0% +32.1% 50% 50% +62.8%
≤90d 6 +8.1% -2.2% 33% 33% +19.8%
all 182 +2.0% -7.7% 59% 47% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 47% -29.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 39% -36.4%
15% -24.6% 31% -42.5%
20% -32.0% 21% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$810) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$332 vs −$1,803 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

645d coverage
Net worth$3,210
Realized−$98,950
Unrealized−$422
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses107 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)182 / 184
History coverage645d
Avg bet$2,456
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3,400 $3,042 −$358 (-11%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $232 $168 −$64 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $5,480 +$5,388 +98%
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 17 $1,166 −$74 -6%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 08 $5,226 −$769 -15%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 12 $401 +$246 +61%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 02 $200 −$77 -38%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 30 $800 −$410 -51%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 10 $1,000 −$589 -59%
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Mar 09 $620 +$24 +4%
Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Mar 09 $400 +$14 +4%
Will Bill Cosby be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Mar 09 $1,000 +$47 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 09 $275 +$46 +17%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Feb 18 $200 +$38 +19%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 18 $300 +$19 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 18 $300 +$30 +10%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 18 $300 +$43 +14%
Will Adrienne Adams finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Dem Jan 02 $300 +$63 +21%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July? Jan 02 $300 +$155 +52%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix Pole? Jan 02 $400 +$89 +22%
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 15%? Jan 02 $400 +$92 +23%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 2% and 1%? Jan 02 $400 +$119 +30%
UFC 318: Spann vs. Brzeski Jan 02 $400 +$192 +48%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jan 02 $400 +$197 +49%
Boxing: Will Usyk win by Decision? Jan 02 $400 +$204 +51%
UFC 318: Vettori vs. Allen Jan 02 $400 +$215 +54%
UFC 318: Phillips vs. Oliveira Jan 02 $400 +$291 +73%
Will Brad Lander finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democr Jan 02 $100 +$26 +26%
Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference? Jan 02 $100 +$48 +48%
Solana Up or Down - July 22, 10PM ET Jan 02 $100 +$96 +96%
Will Russia capture Udachne before August? Jan 02 $200 +$33 +17%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference? Jan 02 $200 +$50 +25%
UFC 318: Crute vs. Prachnio Jan 02 $200 +$74 +37%
30% EU tariff in effect by August 1? Jan 02 $200 +$103 +52%
Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference? Jan 02 $200 +$107 +54%
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before August? Jul 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Spain win the UEFA Women's Euro? Jul 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jul 22 $400 −$400 -100%
XRP Up or Down - July 22, 7PM ET Jul 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will England vs. India end in a draw? Jul 22 $200 −$200 -100%
UEFA Women’s Euro: France vs. Germany (To Advance) Jul 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $115K July 14–20? Jul 17 $200 −$200 -100%
UFC 318: Costa vs. Kopylov Jul 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? Jul 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05-1.09ºC in June 2025? Jul 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 10 executive orders in June? Jul 13 $400 −$400 -100%
Trump approval >45% on July 1? Jul 13 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th Jul 13 $60 +$130 +217%
Will Joey Chestnut eat 70+ Hot Dogs? Jul 13 $400 +$173 +43%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on July 1? Jul 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July? Jul 01 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $350b on June 30? Jul 01 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 2h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $2,000 2h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $98 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $9,739 3h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $33 25h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,000 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $1,032 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $5,480 2d
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 97¢ $604 3d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4,457 42d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5,226 42d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $401 79d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $123 79d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $200 80d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $400 80d
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 75¢ $488 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? SELL Yes 25¢ $390 81d
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY No 93¢ $766 91d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? BUY Yes 48¢ $300 101d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL Yes 21¢ $411 101d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? BUY Yes 55¢ $500 101d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,000 102d
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 97¢ $644 102d
Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 86¢ $414 102d
Will Bill Cosby be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 95¢ $775 102d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $321 102d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $275 108d
Will Bill Cosby be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 90¢ $272 108d
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY No 93¢ $620 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,210.02 · official $3,210.02 (match) · 476 history records