Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:21:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A1 0xa148…f655 world 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$78 (+6%) realized +$14 · open +$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$99
world 40% +$27
tech 7% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 33% -2.0%
≤30d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 33% -2.0%
≤90d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 33% -2.0%
all 3 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 33% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 33% -2.0%
10% -18.6% 33% -11.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -20.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$17 · ×3.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,110
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 81¢ $477 $514 +$37 (+8%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $306 $308 +$2 (+1%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 58¢ 63¢ $260 $285 +$25 (+10%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Jun 28 $200 +$63 +32%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 27 $56 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 27 $104 −$33 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,110.31 · official $1,109.92 (match) · 14 history records