Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:02:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa14b…cf66 world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$84 (-4%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate48%24W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$4
politics 31% +$6
other 18% +$2
sports 10% +$3
finance 7% −$96
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.6% -11.0% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 +0.4% -9.2% 39% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 29 -1.9% -11.2% 28% 3% -14.1%
all 50 +2.4% -7.4% 48% 10% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 10% -13.2%
10% -16.2% 6% -21.5%
15% -24.3% 6% -29.1%
20% -31.7% 6% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses24 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage529d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $41 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $39 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $20 $0 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $79 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $119 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $29 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $84 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $40 +$2 +5%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $44 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $137 −$96 -70%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $268 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $274 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $201 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $124 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 30 $42 +$4 +8%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $17 $0 +2%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Mar 27 $18 $0 +1%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $16 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $16 +$1 +9%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 16 $16 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $12 +$3 +22%
Central Michigan vs. Ball State Mar 06 $16 −$3 -21%
Rutgers vs. Purdue Mar 03 $18 −$3 -14%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 40°F or higher on February 17? Mar 03 $17 +$1 +9%
Illinois State vs. Indiana State Feb 16 $4 +$4 +100%
North Carolina vs. Clemson Feb 16 $6 +$4 +54%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 05 $9 $0 +3%
Iggy Azalea vs. Profits Jan 18 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $34 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $10 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $43 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $8 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $8 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $34 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $35 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $20 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $43 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $43 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $7 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records