Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A1 0xa14d…48bc other 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 519d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$631 (-6%) realized −$629 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%91W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$37
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$441
sports 8% −$131
politics 5% −$92
world 3% +$13
crypto 2% −$35
economics 0% +$18
tech 0% −$11
weather 0% +$11
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +26.4% +14.4% 44% 44% -6.9%
≤30d 48 +21.8% +10.2% 46% 46% -7.7%
≤90d 48 +21.8% +10.2% 46% 46% -7.7%
all 188 -7.0% -15.8% 48% 36% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 36% -14.9%
10% -23.9% 25% -23.1%
15% -31.2% 23% -30.5%
20% -38.0% 19% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$21 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

519d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$629
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses91 / 97
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)188 / 192
History coverage519d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 60¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$4 -20%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $119 +$39 +33%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $61 −$2 -4%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $34 +$25 +73%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$39 +129%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$30 +60%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 +$20 +67%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$17 +164%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$25 +50%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $73 +$30 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $30 +$22 +73%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 +$35 +70%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $79 +$10 +13%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 02 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $27 42m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $30 45m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $30 46m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 51m
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $88 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $27 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 25h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 25h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 33¢ $31 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $33 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $34 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $31 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 37h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 37h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 37h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $30 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $20 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $16 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $76 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.72 · official $113.72 (match) · 413 history records