Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa14d…45d1 sports 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,932 (+16%) realized +$4,098 · open −$166
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%40W / 49L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$362est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,964
7 days+$5,726
14 days+$4,121
30 days+$4,347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$4,105
other 10% +$909
world 3% −$733
crypto 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +47.8% +33.7% 66% 66% +31.8%
≤30d 89 +5.1% -4.9% 45% 45% +7.4%
≤90d 89 +5.1% -4.9% 45% 45% +7.4%
all 89 +5.1% -4.9% 45% 45% +7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 45% +7.4%
10% -14.0% 44% -2.9%
15% -22.3% 39% -12.3%
20% -29.9% 38% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$357 vs −$203 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized+$4,098
Unrealized−$166
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses40 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$362
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 92
History coverage19d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 29¢ 46¢ $286 $448 +$163 (+57%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 11¢ 0¢ $330 $1 −$328 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $816 −$814 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $350 +$649 +185%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,822 +$2,678 +147%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $375 +$374 +100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $689 +$1,137 +165%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $41 +$45 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $370 −$370 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $163 +$237 +145%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $270 +$229 +85%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 +$59 +188%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $747 −$733 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $264 −$264 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $105 +$163 +156%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $355 −$355 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $208 +$279 +134%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $250 +$249 +100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $527 +$473 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $286 +$714 +250%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $800 +$199 +25%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $422 +$578 +137%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $512 +$487 +95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $333 −$327 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $125 −$125 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $263 +$487 +185%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $598 −$593 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $595 +$324 +54%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $399 +$393 +98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $87 +$112 +128%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $131 +$68 +52%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $115 −$113 -98%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $93 +$22 +24%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $63 +$27 +42%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 10 $39 −$38 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $211 −$208 -99%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W Jun 10 $193 +$347 +180%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $240 +$259 +108%
LoL: CITA Kaizen vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $153 −$153 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $148 −$148 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $187 +$29 +16%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs MAGAZA (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $160 −$160 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $41 −$40 -98%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $150 −$148 -99%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $103 −$100 -97%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $61 −$60 -98%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $110 −$108 -98%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $43 −$42 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $292 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 11¢ $313 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 11¢ $9 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 11¢ $8 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 6¢ $61 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $53 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $45 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $31 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $71 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $110 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win BUY 12¢ $292 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 16¢ $2 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 16¢ $34 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 16¢ $1 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 28¢ $184 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 27¢ $95 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $385 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $15 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $100 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $999 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $264 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $32 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $2 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $53 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $200 10h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $749 11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 30¢ $43 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 30¢ $2 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 30¢ $2 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 30¢ $73 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.83 · official $734.67 · 293 history records