Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:21:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa14d…789a world 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 406d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate58%21W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$2
other 29% +$1
crypto 3% +$1
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 15 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 17 +0.0% -9.5% 35% 0% -10.0%
all 36 +0.8% -8.8% 58% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses21 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage406d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $78 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $2 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $75 −$2 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $43 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $44 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $22 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $38 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $40 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $39 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 27 $6 $0 +3%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 26 $18 +$1 +4%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 29 $18 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? May 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? May 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? May 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 24 $19 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23? May 21 $5 +$1 +9%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Metallic Rouge' win Crunchyroll's Best Original Anime Award for May 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 19 $22 $0 +1%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? May 17 $22 $0 +1%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 21m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $39 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $39 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $23 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $6 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $40 34h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $8 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $8 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $32 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $4 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $36 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $40 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $39 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $36 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.73 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records