Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa151…569d other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%23W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$2
other 35% −$1
politics 12% +$1
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% −$1
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 31% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 31% 0% -9.8%
all 57 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses23 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage470d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $46 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $40 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $53 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $125 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $46 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $138 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $72 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $51 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -7%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $12 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suri May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 30 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 29 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on May 23? May 23 $13 $0 +1%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 21 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Iceland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 15 $2 $0 -22%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 14 $28 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 13 $3 $0 -9%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon be named in Epstein files? May 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in April 2025? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 08 $14 $0 +1%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 08 $14 $0 -1%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $35 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $8 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $37 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $46 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $7 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $7 15h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $37 22h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $1 22h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 22h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $46 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $29 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $15 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $46 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $46 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $34 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.07 · official $35.08 (match) · 191 history records