Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:24:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa152…d92d crypto 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$978 (-13%) realized −$978 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate71%92W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$28
14 days−$13
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$606
sports 5% −$221
other 3% +$2
weather 3% −$163
world 2% +$12
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.5% -19.0% 67% 33% -23.0%
≤30d 21 -9.4% -18.0% 71% 29% -11.0%
≤90d 47 -18.2% -26.0% 49% 23% -56.1%
all 130 -2.4% -11.7% 71% 33% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 33% -21.3%
10% -20.1% 22% -28.8%
15% -27.9% 12% -35.7%
20% -34.9% 8% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$40 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$978
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses92 / 38
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage281d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $56 −$11 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 02 $36 +$15 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on May 30? May 31 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 28 $25 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on May 29? May 28 $0 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on May 29? May 28 $3 −$2 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or below on May 20? May 23 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 23 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $5 +$18 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 20? May 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 20 $29 −$11 -38%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 20 $221 −$154 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 19 $104 +$131 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on May 5? May 04 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on May 5? May 04 $30 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 26? Apr 26 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 26? Apr 26 $2 +$2 +106%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 06 $35 +$3 +7%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 05 $20 −$4 -21%
Will Perena launch a token by September 30, 2026? Apr 05 $35 −$6 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 04 $12 −$11 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 04 $51 −$34 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2AM ET Apr 04 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 04 $660 −$660 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $16 +$3 +17%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera Mar 29 $16 $0 +2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Mar 20 $42 +$3 +7%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 20 $16 +$1 +4%
Will GRVT launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $27 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 25d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on May 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 25d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on May 29? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on May 29? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 25d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on May 29? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 365 history records