Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:07:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa152…64f3 other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$115 (+1%) realized +$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 112L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$10
politics 29% −$8
sports 14% +$133
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 89 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 129 +9.9% -0.6% 13% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 7% -9.1%
10% -10.1% 5% -17.8%
15% -18.8% 5% -25.7%
20% -26.7% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$0 · ×27.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.16 per $1 lost it wins $4.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 112
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage130d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $19 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $184 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $117 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $258 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $173 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $222 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $210 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 28 $177 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $181 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $183 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 24 $152 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $156 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $185 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $142 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 17 $197 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $357 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $178 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $379 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $176 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $205 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $343 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $170 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $353 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $169 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 09 $189 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $149 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $146 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $169 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $213 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $191 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 3h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 9h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 9h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 15h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 16h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 22h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 32h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 36h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 40h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 45h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 6d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 6d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 7d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 9d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 10d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $19 11d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 12d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 13d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $33 13d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $33 14d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $22 14d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $22 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 17d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 18d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 376 history records