Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa157…8641 crypto 335 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,602 (-8%) realized −$1,177 · open −$425
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%145W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days−$669
14 days−$1,591
30 days−$1,591
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$845
crypto 25% −$813
politics 6% −$644
world 3% +$542
other 2% −$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -45.3% -50.5% 24% 24% -39.7%
≤30d 82 -9.3% -17.9% 32% 30% -41.3%
≤90d 124 -14.0% -22.2% 35% 33% -29.7%
all 331 -2.8% -12.1% 44% 41% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 41% -17.8%
10% -20.5% 38% -25.7%
15% -28.2% 35% -32.8%
20% -35.2% 31% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$60 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$1,177
Unrealized−$425
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses145 / 186
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions3
Markets (closed)331 / 335
History coverage247d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 331 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $130 $127 −$3 (-2%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 42¢ 42¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 42¢ 0¢ $421 $1 −$421 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $107 +$143 +134%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $124 +$81 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $100 +$166 +166%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $64 −$64 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $65 +$56 +86%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 +$35 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $29 +$47 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 +$58 +281%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $9 +$11 +114%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $31 +$46 +152%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $80 +$45 +56%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $39 +$50 +128%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $52 −$39 -74%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 −$18 -18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $48 +$67 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $14 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 21¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 42¢ $225 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 42¢ $102 17h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 60¢ $60 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 60¢ $60 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $100 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $107 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $124 30h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 71¢ $110 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $49 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 58¢ $38 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $51 2d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 53¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $26 2d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 53¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $24 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $46 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 24¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 56¢ $41 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $10 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $30 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $29 4d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win BUY 29¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.10 · official $236.10 (match) · 1101 history records