Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa15b…d178 other 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$99 (+5%) realized +$19 · open +$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$199
7 days−$202
14 days−$285
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 50% +$2
other 50% +$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -18.0% -25.8% 42% 42% -40.9%
≤30d 36 +2.3% -7.4% 42% 42% -2.4%
≤90d 40 -0.0% -9.5% 40% 40% -4.1%
all 40 -0.0% -9.5% 40% 40% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 40% -4.1%
10% -18.2% 40% -13.3%
15% -26.1% 38% -21.7%
20% -33.4% 38% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$30 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$80
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage36d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Down 50¢ 84¢ $50 $84 +$34 (+67%)
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Down 52¢ 98¢ $36 $68 +$32 (+88%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Up 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Down 40¢ 99¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+148%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $35 +$35 +100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $283 −$214 -76%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$14 +71%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$20 +100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$40 +89%
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$40 +100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $22 −$22 -98%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $45 −$45 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $56 −$54 -95%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $12 +$12 +100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $75 +$77 +102%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $45 +$60 +133%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $91 −$90 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $40 −$33 -83%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $20 +$19 +96%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $105 +$138 +132%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $25 −$2 -10%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $7 −$2 -29%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $7 −$3 -37%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $36 +$33 +92%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $55 −$18 -32%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $173 +$43 +25%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 27 $15 −$9 -58%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $57 +$53 +93%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $10 −$2 -15%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $36 −$8 -23%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $91 +$179 +197%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $15 −$9 -56%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $27 +$23 +85%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $10 −$3 -33%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $50 −$27 -53%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $61 +$31 +51%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $45 −$22 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 50¢ $50 25m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 100¢ $70 1h
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 50¢ $5 6h
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 50¢ $30 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 40¢ $10 6h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 47¢ $28 6h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 52¢ $26 6h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 50¢ $30 6h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 50¢ $29 20h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 87¢ $52 21h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 50¢ $50 22h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 1¢ $5 23h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 10¢ $52 26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 31¢ $21 27h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 50¢ $5 28h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 50¢ $20 28h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 33¢ $5 28h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 30¢ $5 28h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 29¢ $10 28h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $2 29h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $13 29h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $25 29h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 50¢ $69 40h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 58¢ $20 43h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $30 45h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 51¢ $71 45h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $2 45h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $2 46h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.01 · official $219.90 · 237 history records