Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A1 0xa160…442b sports 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,994 (+10%) realized +$12,999 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%55W / 54L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$1,239per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$827est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,341
7 days+$6,683
14 days+$12,986
30 days+$14,457
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$3,497
sports 38% +$6,790
crypto 4% +$2,061
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -7.2% -16.0% 48% 43% +5.2%
≤30d 61 +12.1% +1.4% 49% 41% +5.7%
≤90d 109 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 43% -0.3%
all 109 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 43% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 43% -0.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 36% -9.9%
15% -27.8% 30% -18.6%
20% -34.9% 24% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,674) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,005 vs −$810 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized+$12,999
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses55 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$827
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage55d
Avg bet$1,239
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 46¢ 46¢ $426 $421 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $451 −$451 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $66 −$55 -83%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $3,462 +$4,503 +130%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,674 +$126 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3,386 +$2,014 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,643 −$1,643 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,206 −$2,205 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,121 +$1,023 +48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3,814 +$2,338 +61%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,756 +$714 +41%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3,083 +$2,492 +81%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3,513 −$3,513 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,822 −$388 -14%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,284 +$2,016 +47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,088 −$1,028 -49%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $383 +$895 +233%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,291 −$674 -29%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $476 −$476 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $2,145 +$3,210 +150%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 20 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,792 −$2,156 -77%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,514 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3,036 −$3,005 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $551 +$14 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3,428 −$3,428 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,966 −$1,966 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,497 −$1,397 -31%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $557 +$148 +27%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $335 +$553 +165%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,167 +$4,033 +186%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 +$32 +186%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $950 +$1,030 +108%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,002 +$588 +59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,980 +$2,061 +69%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,785 +$2,465 +138%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,017 +$1,463 +144%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $635 −$624 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $918 +$4,482 +488%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $750 −$734 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1,035 −$1,020 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $979 −$9 -1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,080 −$2,033 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $3,860 −$135 -4%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $899 −$899 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $1,265 +$46 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $813 +$2,040 +251%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $660 +$234 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $176 −$176 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 46¢ $426 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 46¢ $4,277 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $4,442 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Andrey Pulyaev 35¢ $3 4h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Andrey Pulyaev 35¢ $5 4h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Andrey Pulyaev 35¢ $190 4h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Andrey Pulyaev 35¢ $2 4h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Andrey Pulyaev 35¢ $5 4h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Andrey Pulyaev 35¢ $66 4h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Andrey Pulyaev 35¢ $4 4h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Andrey Pulyaev 36¢ $64 4h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Andrey Pulyaev 37¢ $111 4h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, SELL Theodor Berggren 18¢ $11 4h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Theodor Berggren 18¢ $16 4h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Theodor Berggren 18¢ $15 4h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Theodor Berggren 18¢ $22 4h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Theodor Berggren 18¢ $13 4h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 42¢ $246 5h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $7 6h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $880 6h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $352 6h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $15 6h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $30 6h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $953 6h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 42¢ $559 6h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 42¢ $420 6h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $476 16h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $1,198 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 42¢ $754 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 42¢ $889 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.88 · official $420.88 (match) · 783 history records