Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:53:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa163…de8d other 187 markets active 0h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,766 (+1%) realized −$3,216 · open +$7,982
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate73%125W / 47L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,427per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$139,624now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$596
14 days+$596
30 days+$897
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$26
politics 22% −$366
tech 18% +$2,953
world 11% +$1,124
culture 1% +$446
economics 0% +$29
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.6% +1.0% 100% 67% -2.8%
≤30d 8 +2.2% -7.5% 88% 38% -4.7%
≤90d 27 -6.7% -15.6% 81% 22% -7.3%
all 172 +3.4% -6.4% 73% 18% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 18% -10.6%
10% -15.4% 8% -19.1%
15% -23.5% 6% -27.0%
20% -31.0% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$1,463) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$323 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$139,624
Realized−$3,216
Unrealized+$7,982
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses125 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)172 / 187
History coverage616d
Avg bet$2,427
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 80¢ 86¢ $81,525 $87,155 +$5,629 (+7%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $19,230 $19,777 +$548 (+3%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 82¢ 92¢ $6,100 $6,856 +$756 (+12%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 87¢ 95¢ $6,197 $6,708 +$512 (+8%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 87¢ 92¢ $6,070 $6,475 +$405 (+7%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No 88¢ 87¢ $4,014 $3,961 −$54 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $3,801 $3,854 +$53 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $1,880 $1,913 +$34 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 87¢ 88¢ $901 $911 +$10 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 89¢ $862 $894 +$33 (+4%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 77¢ 80¢ $611 $635 +$24 (+4%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 64¢ $278 $288 +$10 (+4%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 75¢ 97¢ $68 $88 +$20 (+30%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 65¢ 76¢ $68 $79 +$11 (+17%)
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 65¢ $39 $30 −$9 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? Jun 25 $7,305 +$496 +7%
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 25 $60 +$8 +13%
MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $614 +$93 +15%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3,867 +$200 +5%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $1,727 +$53 +3%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 29 $86 +$40 +47%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? May 29 $86 −$64 -74%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? May 29 $3,259 +$72 +2%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? May 17 $283 +$9 +3%
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? May 14 $243 +$5 +2%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $402 +$55 +14%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 11 $895 +$42 +5%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? May 05 $422 +$8 +2%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 05 $4,435 +$95 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $3,714 +$38 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con Apr 30 $765 +$12 +2%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co Apr 30 $2 $0 +19%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $1,567 +$24 +2%
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 29 $32 −$32 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 24 $137 +$52 +38%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Apr 01 $492 −$87 -18%
Will MrBeast hit 475 Million subscribers by March 31? Apr 01 $450 −$373 -83%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $12,834 +$243 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $4,609 +$111 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $5,640 +$201 +4%
Will MrBeast hit 475 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 01 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 28 $386 +$30 +8%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Mar 27 $50 −$13 -26%
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? Mar 26 $116 −$40 -34%
Will MrBeast hit 120 billion views by March 31? Mar 25 $1,874 +$64 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 24 $1,193 +$33 +3%
Will MrBeast hit 118 billion views by March 31? Mar 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast hit 125 billion views by March 31? Mar 22 $2,050 +$39 +2%
Will MrBeast hit 477 million subscribers by April 30? Mar 22 $19 +$4 +23%
Will MrBeast hit 115 billion views by March 31? Mar 22 $519 +$3 +1%
Will MrBeast hit 480 Million subscribers by March 31? Mar 21 $124 +$27 +21%
Will Baidu have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Will MrBeast hit 472 Million subscribers by March 31? Mar 17 $482 +$16 +3%
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by March 31? Mar 08 $49 +$1 +2%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 31? Mar 07 $1,795 +$205 +11%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15? Mar 06 $375 $0 -0%
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28? Mar 01 $305 +$195 +64%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28? Mar 01 $13,546 +$1,039 +8%
Will Noetix Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Ga Mar 01 $570 −$125 -22%
Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? Mar 01 $1,183 −$200 -17%
Will MrBeast hit 470 Million subscribers by March 31? Mar 01 $3,946 +$610 +16%
Will MrBeast hit 117 billion views by March 31? Feb 28 $48 −$40 -83%
Will Booster Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival G Feb 27 $1,261 +$13 +1%
Will Zhipu Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gal Feb 27 $1,839 +$20 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $956 25m
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? BUY No 87¢ $330 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $965 1h
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $59 38h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $234 38h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $460 38h
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? BUY No 86¢ $439 38h
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2,141 2d
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1,507 2d
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $994 3d
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $68 3d
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 3d
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 3d
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 3d
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 3d
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 3d
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $289 3d
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1,699 3d
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1,158 3d
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? BUY No 78¢ $71 3d
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? BUY No 88¢ $352 3d
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $329 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $467 6d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL No 77¢ $139 7d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL No 77¢ $4 7d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL No 77¢ $4 7d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL No 77¢ $4 7d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL No 77¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139,624.48 · official $139,624.48 (match) · 2408 history records