Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:31:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa163…934d sports 472 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 224d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$530 (-1%) realized −$535 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate32%155W / 325L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$978est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$925now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 225d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$4,447
other 7% +$586
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -27.1% -34.1% 57% 21% -9.8%
≤30d 30 -32.0% -38.5% 53% 20% -10.0%
≤90d 464 +3.1% -6.7% 32% 25% -12.3%
all 480 +2.6% -7.2% 32% 25% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 25% -12.6%
10% -16.1% 24% -20.9%
15% -24.2% 22% -28.6%
20% -31.6% 21% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$90 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$925
Realized−$535
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses155 / 325
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$978
Open positions1
Markets (closed)480 / 472
History coverage225d ⚠
Avg bet$146
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $920 $925 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 260 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lakers vs. Kings Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Warriors Jun 17 $70 −$25 -36%
Warriors vs. Bucks Jun 17 $142 −$142 -100%
Lakers vs. Timberwolves Jun 17 $46 −$324 -707%
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Suns vs. Jazz Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $285 +$15 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $156 +$44 +28%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $77 +$3 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 +$100 +101%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $870 +$129 +15%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $935 +$64 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $267 +$33 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,392 +$106 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,590 +$91 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,963 +$134 +7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,776 +$206 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,660 +$115 +7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,623 −$922 -35%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $75 +$25 +34%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $773 −$375 -48%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $713 +$62 +9%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $657 +$56 +9%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $619 +$32 +5%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,039 −$451 -43%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5) May 11 $48 +$36 +76%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $113 +$56 +50%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $78 +$36 +46%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $36 +$41 +114%
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $23 −$23 -98%
Spread: Kawasaki Frontale (-1.5) May 06 $18 +$5 +30%
Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5) May 06 $131 −$130 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $91 +$54 +60%
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $40 +$13 +33%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $81 −$60 -74%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $51 +$110 +216%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $84 −$82 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $123 −$120 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $275 −$270 -98%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $922 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $80 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $77 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $156 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $285 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $999 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $99 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $448 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $67 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $7 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $33 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $999 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $207 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $107 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $935 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $300 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $211 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $48 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $8 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,498 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $3 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $12 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $38 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $38 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $12 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $38 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $12 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $38 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $38 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $925.00 · official $925.00 (match) · 3500 history records